Despite a very strong Friday where North American equity indices rose between 1½% and nearly 4%, it was not a positive week overall when full-week losses exceeded 2%.
The release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday morning was a significant contributor to equity volatility and losses last week. Thankfully, price increases during April were less than March, but the annual and monthly inflation rate remains at a historically high level. Inflation of 8.3% over the past year was led by shelter, food, airline fares and new vehicles in April. Ongoing inflation at this high rate indicates that the Federal Reserve will remain aggressive on monetary policy, especially for short-term interest rates. With the monthly rate dropping to 0.3% in March from 1.2% in April, it appears that inflation may have peaked, which is a small measure of positive news. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Producer Price Index (PPI), which is the measure of inflation at the wholesale level, is beginning to slow as well. In April the PPI fell to 0.5% after February’s 1.1% and March’s 1.6% rise in prices. Interestingly the price increase for goods was 1.3% as services prices remained unchanged. BLS PPI
China’s CPI and PPI in April arrived above estimates at annualized rates of 2.1% and 8%, respectively. These prices were driven by increasing demand due to panic buying as another pandemic wave hits, continuing supply chain issues, and rising commodity prices driven by the invasion of Ukraine. China CPI PPI
The supply chain and commodity price issues affecting China are global, and until they are resolved inflation will persist in North America and globally. Central banks will seek to temper inflation by increasing interest rates. The Federal Reserve has telegraphed ½% increases at it next two monetary policy meetings on June 15th and July 27th. While interest rates rise and the fear of stagflation or recession loom, capital markets will continue to deliver volatile results. Fed Release WSJ Article
What is Ahead for This Week and Beyond?
In Canada, March’s manufacturing sales and new orders, construction investment, and April’s housing starts, existing home sales, MLS Home Price Index and new housing price index will be announced. CPI will also be released and will be next week’s most influential indicator for Canadian investors.
In the U.S., April’s retail sales, industrial production, business inventories, housing starts, building permits and existing home sales are scheduled for release as earnings season winds down.
Globally, China’s retail sales and industrial production, Japan’s machine tool orders, CPI, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Eurozone’s trade deficit, GDP, CPI and PPI will be released.