What Happened Last Week?
Canadian equities outperformed their American peers last week as the TSX finished just slightly ahead of the previous week’s close. The S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ each dropped about 1% during last week’s shortened session following Memorial Day observances. Global equities represented by the All-Country World Index fared better than American indices, but still lost ½ percentage point.
Canadian equities corelated positively to the rise in the price of oil, which buoyed the value of our dollar. The belief that these three indicators (the TSX, CDN$ and oil) are becoming more independent from one another was disproved last week, if only temporarily.
Despite the negative results in the U.S. and positive results in Canada, it was positive news in the U.S. that dominated economic releases last week. The U.S. economy added 390,000 jobs in May, a month where 330,000 people rejoined the labour force. Additional job seekers are an indicator of a strong jobs market suggesting that wages are rising above expectations and job finding is becoming easier. The slowing and eliminating of pandemic restrictions and government support is also contributing workers to the labour force. The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.6%, a historically low level.
The implications of the rising wage may have contributed to last week’s U.S. equity losses. Average hourly earnings have risen 5.2% over the past 12 months. This eases the effect of inflation on households and supports on-going economic growth. However, growing wages contribute to inflation, and continued inflation suggests further interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve and other central banks will occur, especially where the same strong labour market and inflation exists. BLS Announcement
What is Ahead for this Week and Beyond?
In Canada, the merchandise trade balance for April will be released during a slower than usual week for economic announcements. Employment numbers for May will be announced on Friday.
In the U.S., the goods and services trade balance and consumer credit for April are scheduled. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May is scheduled for Friday morning, and its results (slowing, steady or increasing) will provide insight to the last and next Federal Reserve monetary policy action.